November 9, 2026

2026-11-09
By admin83
Posted in Uncategorized

November 9, 2026

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Charlie Munger

Well, the elections are over and the results surprised both sides, It seems gas prices and cost of living were largely responsible for the Democratic success despite their very low popularity, It amazes me how the short term can be so disconnected from the long term result, but I think those voters will find out soon enough. Recriminations, claims of vote stealing (ironically all state initiatives for voter protection and integrity won by huge margins, but the Democrats seem to signal they will ignore that part), vendettas and gridlock are ahead, The good news? Wall Street likes gridlock. So we shall see.

US equities finished the week lower again, with the heaviest damage still concentrated in technology. The Nasdaq fell about 3.4% as investors digested midterm election results and fresh questions about the pace and returns on AI capital spending. Democrats won control of both the House and Senate, as mentioned raising the prospect of gridlock in Washington and tighter scrutiny of data-center development in key states. Oil dropped sharply on hopes of progress in U.S.-Iran talks. Mortgage rates eased further to 7.18%. The S&P 500 is now roughly 5.7% below its early-October record. Here are the numbers. The S&P 500 finished the week down 2.68% at 7,376.86. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.94% to 51,285.73. The Nasdaq dropped 3.37% to 24,579.43. The Russell 2000 fell 2.05% to 2,754.11. The 10-year Treasury finished near 4.86%. WTI settled at $90.83.
So, what happened? The week opened quietly, then turned volatile around the midterm elections. Markets rallied Wednesday as results clarified into a divided government: the S&P rose 1.6% and the Dow gained 3%. Thursday reversed sharply. The S&P fell 4.4% and the Nasdaq dropped 5.5%—its worst day in months—as investors priced the risk of slower AI infrastructure buildout and more regulatory friction. Chip and AI-related names led the decline. Friday brought a partial rebound led by semiconductors and select technology stocks after a stronger-than-expected October jobs report (+165,000 payrolls). Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up about 7.8%, the Dow 6.7%, and the Nasdaq 5.8%.

Overseas, Foreign markets largely followed the U.S. pattern, with technology caution and the U.S. election results setting the tone. Europe and Asia were mixed to softer into the weekend as oil retreated and the AI spending debate continued. The longer-term case for foreign equities is unchanged; this week they simply shared the same valuation and policy questions.
What’s the FED up to? They remained on pause. The funds rate stays at 3.75%–4.00%. No meeting occurred this week. The next FOMC gathering is December 8–9. Markets continue to lean toward another hike then, though the combination of election-related uncertainty, softer tech sentiment, and the recent drop in oil have taken some near-term urgency out of the path. A 4.86% 10-year is already doing part of the work.

In Economic news, the week was dominated by the midterms and the jobs report rather than fresh inflation data. October payrolls came in well above expectations at 165,000, reinforcing the Fed’s description of a labor market that is not cracking. Growth remains solid and inflation is still elevated. The sharp drop in oil helps on the energy contribution, but it is too early to declare a lasting relief. The next inflation data will matter more for the December decision.

In the housing market and mortgage rates news. Mortgage rates eased for a third consecutive week. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week ending November 5 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.18%, down from 7.24%. The 15-year fixed fell to 6.57% from 6.60%. A year ago, the 30-year was 6.22%. The modest decline is welcome, but 7.18% remains a heavy affordability burden. Housing activity continues to show the drag; a sustained move lower in rates would still be the cleanest path to a better spring selling season.

So, in summary, It seems proving my point, as better and better economic news comes it was too late to give voters the warm and fuzzy that things are improving as represented, however not fast enough, The balance of the year look for volatility but we should end up this year still moving forward as the fights in Washington distract from the economic medaling to come. But this week put both the AI spending question and the post-election policy outlook front and center. The Fed is still on pause, the economy is still described as strong, and the Dow held up better than the Nasdaq. At the same time, the sharp Thursday sell-off and the continued focus on AI capital spending (why? The Democrats seem to want to declare war on AI spending and build out. Notice how Canada threw its arms open to encourage data centers to build there.) returns show that valuation and return-on-investment concerns are no longer abstract. Oil has pulled back meaningfully. The 10-year is still just under 5%. We share the constructive multi-year view, but we expect off and on tech sell offs , don’t panic it will be noise want proof? Look at Wednesday/Thursday last week huge drop followed by huge recovery, we expect further sustained relief in oil, and cooler inflation that lets the December hike fade. Until then we say stay the course, look to lock in longer term bond yields balanced with defensive stocks.

Mike

November 9, 2026

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