November 2, 2026

2026-11-02
By admin83
Posted in Uncategorized

November 2, 2026

“Risk comes from not knowing what you’re doing.
”Warren Buffett

Vote,Vote,Vote!

US equities finished the week lower, with the heaviest damage in technology. The Nasdaq fell 2% as investors questioned how much is being spent on AI and whether the returns will justify it. The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, as expected, but two officials dissented in favor of another hike. Oil stayed elevated near $104. Mortgage rates eased further to 7.24%. The S&P 500 is now about 3% below its early-October record.
Here are the numbers. The S&P 500 finished down 0.57% at 7,580.07. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.85% to 51,770.31. The Nasdaq dropped 2.00% to 25,437.00. The Russell 2000 gained 1.29% to 2,811.84. The 10-year Treasury finished near 4.93% and the 2-year near 4.7%. WTI settled at $104.12.

So, what happened?
The week opened with a bounce. Monday through Wednesday the S&P ground higher as the market waited for the Fed. On Wednesday the Committee held the funds rate at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike. The statement noted that economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and inflation remains elevated. Chairman Warsh said the Fed can bring inflation back to 2% without having to “throw sand in the gears.” Markets still price a high chance of a hike in December. Thursday was softer, led by a sharp drop in Alphabet. Friday the tech sell-off intensified. Intel plunged nearly 29%, its worst day since 1974 after a disappointing profit forecast. Amazon’s results raised fresh questions about the scale of AI capital spending. Nvidia, AMD, and other chip names were hit hard. The S&P fell 1.8% (its worst day since June) to 7,580.07, the Nasdaq dropped 2.9% to 25,437.00, and the Dow lost 1.1% to 51,770.31. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up 10.7%, the Dow 7.7%, and the Nasdaq 9.4%.

Overseas,
Foreign markets largely followed the U.S. tech caution into the weekend. Europe closed mixed to lower Friday as oil remained elevated and the AI spending debate crossed the Atlantic. Asia was softer on the same theme. The multi-year case for foreign equities is unchanged; this week they simply shared the valuation question the Nasdaq is asking itself.

What’s the FED up to?
They paused. The funds rate stays at 3.75%–4.00%. The 10–2 vote and the two dissents for a hike the Committee is not unanimous. The statement upgraded the description of growth to “strong” while keeping the line that inflation remains elevated. Warsh’s press conference emphasized patience and the accumulation of more data before the next move. December 8–9 is the next meeting. Markets still lean toward another hike then, but the pause and the soft tech reaction have taken some of the urgency out of the near-term path. A 4.93% 10-year is already doing part of the work.

In Economic news,
The week was dominated by the Fed and earnings rather than fresh inflation or jobs numbers. What we do have is consistent with the Committee’s description: growth is holding up, the labor market is not cracking, and inflation is not yet back at target. Oil above $100 keeps the energy contribution elevated. The next major inflation and employment releases will matter more for the December decision than anything that is released this week.

In the housing market and mortgage rates news.
Mortgage rates eased again. Freddie Mac’s survey for the week ending October 29 put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.24%, down from 7.32%. The 15-year fixed fell to 6.60% from 6.68%. A year ago, the 30-year was 6.17%. The second consecutive weekly decline is welcome, but 7.24% is still a heavy affordability burden. Housing starts and builder sentiment have already shown the drag; a sustained move lower in rates would be the cleanest path to a better spring selling season.

So, in summary,
What direction will this country go? Tomorrow will tell us and all that goes with it. So please preserve your natural born right to determine where this country goes. Thank you.
Though we got a black eye last week, it was long overdue. This week put the AIspending question front and center. The Fed paused, the economy is still described as strong, and the Dow and Russell held up better than the Nasdaq. At the same time, Intel’s collapse, Amazon’s spending commentary, and a 2.9% Nasdaq drop on Friday show that valuation and return-on-investment concerns are no longer abstract. Oil is still above $100. The 10-year is just under 5%. We share a positive multi-year view and like the underlying economic trends, but we are not going to treat a sharp tech sell-off as noise. What would make us more bullish in a hurry is evidence that AI capital spending is producing durable earnings rather than just larger checks, a sustained pullback in oil, and cooler inflation that lets the December hike fade.

Mike

November 2, 2026

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