September 28, 2026

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No. 1.”

Warren Buffett

US equities finished higher for the week, snapping a two-week slump for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq even as the 10-year Treasury yield punched through 5.20% and briefly touched its highest level since 2007. A Friday bounce helped by softer oil on talk of a Hormuz reopening and a modest pullback in yields was enough to put the major averages in the green. Technology led; energy lagged.

Here are the numbers: the S&P 500 finished up 1.21%, The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.28%, the Nasdaq rose 2.06%. Internationally, the FTSE 100 managed a gain of 0.34% and the STOXX Europe 600 was up about 0.5%. The 2-Year Treasury paid 4.86% and the 10-Year yield was 5.17%.

So, what happened?

This was a week of two markets. Equities wanted to celebrate AI and a constructive Trump–Xi summit. Bonds wanted to punish anyone still pretending 5% is a ceiling. Monday set the tone: the Nasdaq jumped 2.3% to a record close of 27,122.09 its first since June as Intel, AMD, and Qualcomm ripped higher and Brent oil slipped. Then the bond market took the baton. The 10-year yield climbed from about 4.96% on Monday to a high of 5.23% midweek, the highest since July 2007. The 30-year yield broke 5.50% for the first time in 22 years. Stocks sold Wednesday and Thursday as that move landed, then recovered on Friday when oil fell and the 10-year eased back to 5.17%. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,743.41, up about 93 points on the week and roughly 0.7% below its August 13 record of 7,798.99. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 51,828.62, up about 146 points a small weekly gain after three straight losing weeks. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,068.72, up about 546 points. Small caps did not get the invitation: the Russell 2000 fell about 0.8% to 2,837.55. Energy was the other side of the story. WTI settled Friday at $92.44, down from $100.30 the prior Friday, after unconfirmed reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were working on a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Information technology was the weekly winner again (S&P tech +3.1%); energy lagged. Year-to-date the S&P 500 is up about 13.1%, the Dow roughly 7.8%, and the Nasdaq about 16.5%.

Around the world in 7 Days,

Global equities were mixed-to-firmer, with Japan the standout and Hong Kong the soft spot. Asia-Pacific: Japan’s Nikkei rose about 2.1% to 66,364.20, extending a late-week rally. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng finished around 24,510, modestly lower on the week after a Friday slide; mainland China and South Korea were closed Friday for holidays. In Europe: Germany’s DAX rose to about 25,409 and France’s CAC finished near 8,078. The STOXX Europe 600 gained around 0.5%, snapping a three-week losing streak. The FTSE 100 was calm again, up 0.34% to 10,695.25. The multi-year case for foreign stocks has not changed this week Europe just stopped paying the rate-hike bill for a few days.

What’s up with the FED?

No meeting this week, but last Wednesday’s hike is still the tape. The funds target sits at 3.75%–4.00% after the first increase since 2023. The September SEP still shows 12 of 18 officials penciling in one more hike this year and four seeing two. Markets spent the week repricing that second move as the 10-year ripped higher (hello higher Mortgage rates) and oil stayed elevated into Thursday. Next scheduled meeting is October 27–28; December 8–9 follows. Fed speakers this week did not walk back Chairman Warsh’s line that inflation is “too high and has been for too long,” or that financial conditions are not obviously restrictive. A cooler oil prices on Friday took a little heat out of October odds, but the bar for standing pat has not gotten easier.

In Economic news,

This was a data week of second-tier prints, and they did not break the “economy is still spending” story. So, despite a news media trying its best to depress you the Trump policies are working extremely well. Except for inflation, (remember it was over 9/% a few years ago). Thursday’s jobless claims for the week ended September 19 slipped 1,000 to 197,000 near multi-decade lows with continuing claims around 1.72 million. Friday’s durable goods orders for August were essentially unchanged at $338.6 billion versus a small decline expected; excluding transportation, orders rose 0.3%, and core capital goods (nondefense ex-aircraft) jumped 1.6%. That is capex that still looks like AI infrastructure, not a stall. Manufacturing expansion and the Atlanta Fed president looking for a 5.1% GDP growth for the third quarter, All is coming up roses if the summit which both sides are being very tightlipped about, results in numerous agreements involving may economic topics. It is fair to say the Chinese need us more than we need them, will they stop the shenanigans in Iran? We shall see. Finally, the final University of Michigan sentiment reading for September ticked up to 48.1 still near a multi-year low, with year-ahead inflation expectations uncomfortably firm. Combined with last week’s strong retail sales and the +162,000 August payrolls, the Committee still has an economy seems to be picking up speed, and inflation that has not yet shown a clean off-ramp.

In the housing market and mortgage rates news.

August New Home Sales (Thursday, September 24) rose 6.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 684,000 units, well above the ~620,000 expected and the strongest pace since late 2025. July was revised up to 643,000. Median new-home price was $393,700 (+0.4% month-over-month, −5.8% year-over-year). Inventory of new homes for sale was unchanged at 483,000 (8.5 months’ supply, down from 9.0). Builders are still moving products with incentives and price cuts; existing home

Sales last week told a softer story. Mortgage rates followed the 10-year higher again. OUCH! Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey for the week ending September 24 showed the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.03% (up 8 basis points from 6.95% the first print above 7% since January 2025) and the 15- year fixed at 6.42% (up 16 basis points from 6.26%). A year ago, the 30-year was 6.30%. Housing is two speed: new home sales can bounce when builders cut prices; a 7% 30-year is still a real affordability hit for existing homes.

So, in summary,

Wall Street’s longer-term consensus on US equities sluggishly still gave us good news and this week the tape finally cooperated with the first winning week in three, Nasdaq back near its record, S&P within 1% of the August high. Earnings and AI infrastructure spend remain the bull case. The near-term bar did not get lower. The 10-year closed at 5.17% after tagging 5.23%. The 30-year mortgage is back above 7%. WTI is off the $100 handle on Hormuz talk, but that talk is still just talk. Watch to see if the US and China summit add additional pressure on Iran and US supply countermeasures take some effect. But will gas prices be down by the election? Expect the real political season to ramp up the difference? For once the Republican have huge war chest and the Democrats are unable to replenish the kitty since Kamala laid waste to the bank account. That plus the swing to the far left maybe will break historic trends this election cycle. The Fed has hiked, the dots still point to at least one more move, and October 27–28 is on the calendar. We share the constructive longer-term view, but we are not going to pretend a 5.2% 10-year is a free lunch. It appears the US Navy has got shipping traffic up to pre-war levels and a genuine reopening of the Strait of Hormuz that sticks, will cause a run of cooler inflation numbers that lets the second hike fade. Until then we have been optimistic about the 4th quarter.

Mike