June 22, 2026

Happy Father’s Day 

“By profession I am a soldier and take great pride in that fact, but I am also prouder, infinitely prouder, to be a father. A soldier destroys in order to build; the father only builds, never destroys.” 

General Douglas MacArthur

What a week! Is peace coming to the Middle East? The markets seem to think so. Here are the numbers. The S&P 500 gained 1.21%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added .81% and the Nasdaq led up 2.85%. Internationally, the FTSE 100 had a tough week off 1.03 and the MSCI-EAFE was flat off .06%. The 2-Year Treasury paid 4.179% and the yield curve narrowed with the 10-Year at 4.455%.

So, what happened in the Markets? This week was a holiday-shortened trading week (markets closed Friday, June 19 for Juneteenth). Major U.S. averages showed resilience amid volatility, finishing mostly higher for the week despite a hawkish Fed signal mid-week. S&P 500: Closed at 7,500.58 Up modestly near all-time highs but below the June 2 peak (7,621). Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA): Closed at 51,564.70. Hit multiple records closes earlier in the period; up solidly for the week. Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,517.93 and was the strongest performer on the rebound day, driven by tech/semiconductors, finishing  up for the week.

What drove the market? U.S.-Iran Interim Peace Deal: Optimism around a deal (including reopening the Strait of Hormuz) eased energy supply fears, boosted sentiment, and helped oil prices pull back. This powered rebounds, especially late in the week. Federal Reserve Meeting: Rates held steady. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s tone was hawkish—dot plot removed some rate cuts, with signals of possible hikes later in 2026 due to inflation concerns. This caused a sharp selloff mid-week (Dow -500+ points, S&P/Nasdaq -1%+ on Wednesday) and higher Treasury yields, but markets recovered quickly. Again, if the flow of oil continues, expect lower energy prices, in some parts of the country the decrease has been dramatic, in fact, the price of oil is now at pre-Iran war prices. Tech & Semiconductors: Mixed but resilient. Strength in chips (e.g., Intel surge on Apple chip news, broader sector gains) drove Nasdaq outperformance on rebound days. SpaceX IPO afterglow from the prior week continued to support innovation/growth themes. The big rotation themes persisted (equal-weight S&P and small caps showing relative strength at times). Oil volatility tied to geopolitics, but easing tensions helped. Markets brushed off Fed concerns on positive headlines. So far this year. U.S. indices remain in solid bull territory (S&P 9–10%+ earlier in the month, Nasdaq stronger), supported by AI enthusiasm, earnings, and economic resilience despite higher-for-longer rate expectations and past geopolitical flares.

Significant U.S. economic data releases from last week? The week featured key inflation reads (CPI and PPI for May), housing data, and other indicators showing resilient consumer spending amid elevated inflation pressures. Let’s start with inflation, in a word hotter than recent trends, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 (released June 10) the headline CPI rose 0.5% Month over Month (in line with expectations) and 4.2% Year over Year (up from 3.8% prior, highest in a while). Core CPI (ex-food/energy): +0.2% MoM (better than expected) and around 3. % YoY. Energy and shelter drove the headline pickup. The Producer Price Index (PPI) May 2026 (released June 11 and the FED’s preferred index) surged +1.1% MoM (hotter than expected) and +6.5% YoY (from 5.7% prior). Goods up sharply (+2.8% MoM), services milder. Largely due to increased energy prices. (sound familiar?) Looking forward we expect significant easing and dealing with the major “affordability” political and economic issue.

Retail Sales were released early this week, June 17, (but reflects May data) the good news continues with advance retail & food services sales: +0.9% MoM (beat expectations of +0.5%) to $763.7 billion; +6.9% YoY. Core/control group also solid (+0.7%). Gasoline and autos helped, showing consumer stubborn optimism despite higher prices.

And the Housing Market? Existing home sales in May 2026 (released June 9): Rose +3.2% MoM to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million units (beat expectations). Also +3.2% YoY. Median price: $429,300 (+1.3% YoY). Inventory improved modestly to 4.5 months’ supply. However, mortgage rates still suck.

Other significant good news? U.S. Trade Balance in April was around -$55.9B (slight improvement). Wholesale Inventories in April were +0.6%. Jobless claims data remained stable (continuing claims around 1.81M).

Overall, the data pointed to a solid economy with sticky inflation (energy-driven) and strong consumer/housing activity. This aligned with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady (at 3.5–3.75%) mid-week while signaling potential hawkishness ahead. These numbers reinforced themes of resilience but higher-for-longer rates. However, the new Federal Reserve Chairman is expected to be much quicker on the trigger if inflation abates. Bottom line, a volatile but ultimately constructive week.as investors digested Fed hawkishness but prioritized de-escalation in the Middle East and tech momentum. In the end, before Wall Street took last Friday off for Juneteenth, the rebound on Thursday put the S&P back in the green for the week.

Fathers, I hope you all had a great day yesterday.

Mike